TEMPERATURE
It shall be cooler than normal across Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and surrounding areas of Northern Andes. It shall stay milder than normal across NE Argentina, Uruguay, Southern Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil.
PRECIPITATION
Good signs for a wetter than normal summer across Northern SAM (Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela and NW Brazil).
However, drier than normal signs across Northern half of Argentina, especially NE regions, and Southern Paraguay and spots in Eastern Brazil.
Dec-Feb 2012 seasonal forecast outputs from several models (Japanese, CFS US, GSM US,Chinese, IRI):
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Looking at La Niña historical effects:
Historical correlation between temperature and past Niña episodes (source KNMI)
Red circles indicate that during La Niña it was wetter than normal, blue circles indicate drought during La Niña. The size of the circles is a measure of the strength of the relationship.
Historical correlation between precipitation and past Niña episodes (source KNMI)
Red circles denote locations that on average are cooler during La Niña. Blue circles are warmer during La Niña. The size of the circles is a measure of the strength of the relationship.
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