We are facing a double-dip of La Niña. Big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008 or this current summer.
La Niña appears to have staged a rapid comeback. However, this month's return to weak La Niña conditions is not guaranteed to continue into the winter: the La Niña winter of 1988-89 was followed by a brief interlude of ENSO-neutral conditions in early summer of 1989, then a brief return to La Niña in late summer, and back to ENSO-neutral during the subsequent boreal fall and winter. Nevertheless, that is the only such case in the last six decades, so La Niña is very likely to develop along the end of 2011 into 2012.
ENSO 3.4 FORECASTS CONFIRM THIS LA NIÑA RETURN (JAPANESE, CFS AND ECMWF MODEL)
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