After last year´s worst Australian Niña episode in recent memory (only our grandpas remember the 1954 or 1973 episodes), shall we now forecast what´s next?
We believe last year’s Niña episode had no good analogues and many forecasters missed the target. This coming Niña episode seems to have more history on its back, as we will now try to make a forecast for the coming season.
This next Niña episode seems to start impacting across SW Pacific along the last couple of months of 2011.
We foresee higher than normal precipitations across most of Eastern and N/NE Australia only by the end of the spring into the coming austral summer.
Do you want more details?
Figures on the left:
Historical correlation between precipitation and past Niña episodes (source KNMI)
Red circles indicate that during La Niña there was, on average, more rain than normal, blue circles indicate drought during La Niña. The size of the circles is a measure of the strength of the relationship.
Figures on the right:
Seasonal precipitation forecast (source ECMWF)
Blue scale refers to higher than normal precipitation expected.
No comments:
Post a Comment