RUSSIA 2011-12 WINTER TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

We are forecasting another cooler than normal winter (Dec-Feb) across most of Russia. It shall be the third consecutive winter cooler than normal across European Russian.

This time, South, Southern Volga, Ural and SW Siberia shall remain mild while the far NE lands will be either mild or warm, locally very warm.

 

We observe too much disparity or weak signals on the seasonal model outputs and we have mostly ignored them. We´ve prefered using historic analogue Niña scenarios.

Dec-Feb 2012 seasonal forecast outputs from several models (Japanese, CFS US, GSM US,Chinese, IRI):